khoisan

Treasure Hunter Testing - Part 4

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Oct. 31st, 2007 | 07:00 pm

I finished collecting data for my Treasure Hunter testing for the TH4 setup. You can read the first 3 parts here:

Treasure Hunter Testing - Part 1
Treasure Hunter Testing - Part 2
Treasure Hunter Testing - Part 3

Why test Treasure Hunter?
It seems that there is a lot of confusion about thieves and their treasure hunter ability. I used to farm with my monk and ninja but once I got THF leveled it was clear to me that treasure hunter helped a great deal. However many people, including quite a few THFs, think that treasure hunter, and TH4, is just a placebo. So after reading many threads I decided to sit down and find a way to test it.

Why hasn't more testing been done?
Treasure Hunter is a difficult job trait to test because it doesn't affect the thief. If you take something like Berserk, you can easily see how it works because there is an Attack value. Even for things like Haste which don't have a value, you can measure them because they always affect you the same way. Treasure Hunter is different because it doesn't affect the job with the trait or other players (not like you get better drops from killing a blm in ballista with TH4). It only affects mobs and we don't know much about the drop rules for mobs to tell what effect it has.

Also the effect may be different depending on the mob you kill. Bees outside of Jeuno might have different drop rules from bees outside of Kazham or Tavnazian Safehold. On top of that, there are many rumors that moon phase affect drops above and beyond Treasure Hunter.

This leads to quite a bit of anecdotal evidence, but many times there isn't any data to back up a feeling. You can see some of the theories on TH on Wikia.

Method: (I presented the method in much more detail in my previous posts but here is a quick summary.)
The method I came up with was to find a mob with multiple separate drops and track the number of drops with different TH setups. I wanted something that was Too Weak so that beastman seals wouldn't add extra drops. It also needed to be plentiful and not heavily camped (if at all). It should also have multiple spawns in a small area and hopefully drop something I could sell.

My targets were bees near Rose Garden spawn point. That way I could also camp an NM while I was working on this. I knew that those bees had four drops and you couldn't get a double drop of the same item. I gave each drop a code (0001 for Beehive Chips, 0010 for Honey etc...) so that I could track the number of items dropped. Code 1111 would mean that all 4 items dropped from one mob.

Data:
   
This was my baseline without any Treasure Hunter. As you can see, the most common result is for nothing to drop from the bee. A little more than a 1/3 of the time you get one drop and very rarely do you see 2, 3 or 4 items from one mob.

   

When you use THF as a subjob, you see the chance that nothing drops from a mob go from 63% to 49% and an increase in the chance at a double drop.

   

Using THF as your main job really improves your drop rate. The No Drop percentage is almost halved (63% to 33%) and the chance at a double drop goes from 1% to 10%. The total number of drops increases just by the fact that you have a 2/3 chance to get any type of drop from the mob.

   

Adding one of the items that increases your treasure hunter ability does increase your total drop rate. The No Drop percentage stays about the same as TH2, but the double drop percentage increases quite a bit. This was the only setup where I saw a quadruple drop.


   

Using both Thief Knife and Assassin's Armlets gives you the maximum Treasure Hunter ability. Again you notice that the No Drop percentage stays at 33%, but the double drop percentage increases again. Getting 3 and 4 drops remains a rarity though.

Analysis:
I have color coded the drop table to show the codes that correspond to No Drop, 1 Drop, 2 Drops, 3 Drops and 4 Drops. This table below contains all the drop values for the different TH setups. I also calculated 2 measurements. The first one is called "Total Drops/Total Kills" and measure the total number of drops per mobs killed. This may go over 100% if you get more than 100 drops over 100 mobs. This would measure total loot output. The second measurement is called "Drop Mob/Total Kills" because I couldn't come up with a good name. It measures the chance that a mob will drop anything at all.




The two important lines in this chart are the blue and the green. The blue, No Drop, line shows that as you go from TH0 to TH2 you reach the minimum No Drop rate of 33%. It seems that no matter how much you TH you add, approximately 1 in 3 bees will not drop anything. So if you reach that limit with TH2, does TH3 and TH4 increase your drop rate?

Luckily the answer is yes through an increase in your double drop rate, the green line. You can see a steady increase in the double drop rate by adding TH3 and TH4 even though you hit the No Drop limit.



This chart shows the total number of drops in blue, and basically the mirror of the No Drop Rate in Red. The chance that a mob will drop an item caps at 66% in this case so the red line flattens out after TH2. The effect of increased double drops causes the total drop line to keep going up even though you've hit that limit.
So what does it mean?
TH0: You get about 40 items per 100 kills
TH1: You get about 60 items per 100 kills. ~ 50% increase over TH0.
TH2: You get about 80 items per 100 kills. ~ 100% increase over TH0 and ~ 33% over TH1.
TH3: You get about 88 items per 100 kills. ~ 120% increase over TH0 and ~ 10% over TH2.
TH4: You get about 95 items per 100 kills. ~ 137% increase over TH0 and ~ 8% over TH3.

I would say that as far as these bees are concerned, each TH+1 item adds +9% to the total drops. Far from the +1% I hear. Of course not all mobs drop as easily or as many items as bees.

Further Testing:
I still have many questions about treasure hunter but it will require quite a bit of testing.
  • How does the number of people in a party affect drop rates?
  • Do two THFs in one party affect drop rates?
  • Does a TH have an effect between parties in an alliance?
  • Does dual wielding Thief Knife lower TH effect?
  • How does moon phase affect drop rates?
  • Do all mobs have a 33% No Drop rate?
  • How does TH work for mobs other than these bees?
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Comments {21}

Fredjan

(no subject)

from: fredjan
date: Oct. 31st, 2007 11:09 pm (UTC)
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Very interesting info.

I've always wondered how TH4 helps out with drops, and that's a nice basis of how it can generally work. Still, it remains a mystery how it works completely. But least it's a step towards understanding it entirely.

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Myrrial

(no subject)

from: lolpup
date: Nov. 1st, 2007 01:45 am (UTC)
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Very interesting read. Although possibly a stupid thing to bring up: Was elemental day/moonphase recorded at all?

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Shulula of Asura

(no subject)

from: khoisan
date: Nov. 1st, 2007 01:59 am (UTC)
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I only recorded for the TH4 run when it was 26% waning. Initially I didn't want to record it under the assumption that the moon phase would have a smaller effect on drops than the presence of Treasure Hunter. Just from my own experience I see a bigger improvement by going from TH0 to TH2 or TH4 than from Moon 0% to 50%.

Although now that I have a baseline for TH4, I might go back and do testing on 0%, 25%, 50% and 75%. I think doing day to day testing would be tougher because of the number of kills I can get in during 1 day. I'd have to spread out the testing over multiple lightning days, lets say, which would mean different moon phases as well. Or have to wait weeks for the same day/moon phase to continue collecting data.

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Shulula of Asura

KI Thread

from: khoisan
date: Nov. 4th, 2007 01:54 pm (UTC)
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KI Thread: http://www.killingifrit.com/forums.php?m=posts&q=163071

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Fredjan

TH: How it goes into effect

from: fredjan
date: Nov. 4th, 2007 09:41 pm (UTC)
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This's been a mystery for some time now, but it's finally been 100% confirmed...

Treasure Hunter goes into effect when...

The effect comes into play as soon as the Thief generates enmity from the target enemy. Even if the Thief does, the effect still remains. The strongest version of Treasure Hunter takes effect over the others.

(Source : http://www.bluegartrls.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=25584&start=0 )

This remains unknown if two people with TH4 are in the same party, however. But it answers a lot of questions, and leaves quite a few unanswered.

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Fredjan

Re: TH: How it goes into effect

from: fredjan
date: Nov. 4th, 2007 09:42 pm (UTC)
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does = dies*

Makes me wonder if the THF has to gain the mob's attention first as in having the highest hate at some point.

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Shulula of Asura

Re: TH: How it goes into effect

from: khoisan
date: Nov. 4th, 2007 11:47 pm (UTC)
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Great find. Its good to know that even if the THF dies the Treasure Hunter Effect stays. I wouldn't have thought that. I thought it was along the lines of emnity, where if you die your hate gets erased.

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(no subject)

from: avatarati.wordpress.com
date: Nov. 8th, 2007 04:13 pm (UTC)
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Wow, that's some extensive testing. Really wants me to take my thief up again :)

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(no subject)

from: anonymous
date: Nov. 9th, 2007 01:15 pm (UTC)
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Thank you. I hope to get back into testing it to see how other mobs behave. I will probably try bees of a different level to see if the 33% no drop rule works for them as well.

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(no subject)

from: avatarati.wordpress.com
date: Nov. 8th, 2007 04:30 pm (UTC)
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Wow, that's some extensive testing. Really wants me to take my thief up again :)

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Shulula of Asura

Sample Size

from: khoisan
date: Nov. 12th, 2007 03:53 pm (UTC)
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I found this sample size calculator that's pretty easy to use: http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

One thing it asks for is population size. Since I don't know how to calculate that I left it blank to simulate an infinite size. Turns out that the 33% no drop rate, with a sample size of 300 (TH2 + TH3 + TH4) would give 95% certainty within +/- 5.32%. That's not bad at all.

I would need a sample size of 1000 to get +/- 3% on the no drop rate.

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Kanican

Re: Sample Size

from: kanican
date: Sep. 21st, 2008 09:38 pm (UTC)
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I know this is a really late comment, but I just wanted to say this testing is really well thought out. Great job on this!

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Shulula of Asura

Re: Sample Size

from: khoisan
date: Sep. 24th, 2008 05:08 am (UTC)
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Thanks Kanican. I see you as the master of testing. Who would have thought we'd figure out emnity?

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THF/mage and TH

from: anonymous
date: Jan. 11th, 2009 08:36 am (UTC)
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Really nice work, i been trying to work somehting out with Shamaya i'm sure you know the name, I recently started to level THF becose the fact i need to farm so many materials for my crathing mule, well here was a question for Sham that i tested but i would love to get more help to clear this out.

Based on the facts of Emn+TH been applyed to a monster on hate list ; Will this be affected by the 2006 neft on ~ga spell killing?

I did a few testings of my own but my THF is only 67, my point was to to pull X-number of mobs and stack TH by having a THF/mage (diaga, poisonga) and then have a couple of BLMs do the kill shots, then compare the same amount of monster killed one by one and compare data, my tests reflected that mass pulling decreases the drop rate ( tested with 4 npc charges = 120 kills) 60 by my self and npc, 60 mass pulling with a WHM friend to keep me alive. Still lack the TH3~4 testing and me been BLM for the kill shot. once i re-do the test and save the data i will try to post it.

Nightbear of Asura

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(no subject)

from: anonymous
date: May. 7th, 2009 12:21 am (UTC)
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I have a quick question, there are some theories out there that suggest that TH1 and TH2 act differently upon items (i.e. rarer drops vs common drops). Along with that theory comes the notion that perhaps the gear effects each one (like TK giving a bonus to TH1 and Assasin's gives a bonus to TH2). I suppose in the sample that you selected isn't the best to base this off of but which gear did you use to get TH3? If it was one over the other maybe that's why you only got 4 item drops for TH3. If it was one that grants a bonus to common drops maybe that's why the TH3 gave you the 4 drop.

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Shulula of Asura

(no subject)

from: khoisan
date: Jun. 5th, 2009 04:04 pm (UTC)
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Sorry I haven't checked this in a while.

Its possible that one item works differently than the other, but I think that's unlikely. I used the AF2 to get TH3 because I could use SK in the off hand and collect data a bit quicker. A while ago there was data collected on BG but it stopped after getting 1000 kills with TH2.

My guess is that TH3 and TH4 would do the same thing as TH1 and TH2 but to a lesser degree. TH1 and TH2 did 2 things. Increase the chance that something would drop, and increase the chance that multiple items would drop.

I don't much like the common vs rare drop view because often you miss what's really going on. Most people kill something for 1 particular drop. If they don't see that drop they don't think TH did much. Even if the total number of drops and the ratio of drops/kills increases.

Also from a programming perspective, its a pain to code drop behavior for each item and also based on which TH+1 item you're using. Just way too many monsters, regions and drops.

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great work

from: anonymous
date: Aug. 25th, 2009 02:31 am (UTC)
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I'm so glad to see some good research on treasure hunter!

I really like the idea of the multiple chances/randoms on drops.
your research clearly shows an increase in 1 and 2 drops.
It looks to me like you get extra chances/randoms on an item until that "slot" is filled. Please note that if an item off of a monster is say 1/100 and you get four extra chances, each chance would still be a 1/100 (or 4/400) and not "widen" the gap with which your supposed /randoms are to land.

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AoE death

from: anonymous
date: Sep. 24th, 2009 02:07 am (UTC)
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I have noticed a very large, very noticable decline in droprate, regardless of TH level when i kill a large group of mobs all at once with Cyclone. It makes me question if the thief must currently be engaged with the monster when it dies for the TH to remain in effect.

This moderate testing was done by training large amounts of mobs and killing them all with repeated uses of cyclone, it assuredly developed enmity on all of them.

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hey

from: anonymous
date: Dec. 4th, 2009 10:13 am (UTC)
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hey im just curious if you have tryed this

Lucky Egg
Cerulean Pendent (Has light element +8 i think)
and all 3 mandy leafs (2,3,4)

i have th3 atm and it seems like i get more items then a person with th4

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Shulula of Asura

Re: hey

from: khoisan
date: Dec. 9th, 2009 08:56 pm (UTC)
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I used to carry the lucky egg and the mandy leafs but ended up just dropping them for the inventory space. The difficulty I had with these items is to measure their effectiveness, you need to have some baseline value. You need to know the effect of TH2 before you can figure out the effect of TH2 + Lucky Egg (or any other augment like Moon Phase).

That's why I spent the time working on a baseline for the effect of treasure hunter as broadly as possible. Unfortunately, each mob functions slightly differently as far as drops, not to mention just randomness. In the end I didn't find a large enough difference to make the -1 inventory worthwhile. I'd rather get another stack of whatever I'm farming.

Good Luck

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A couple thoughts

from: anonymous
date: Dec. 15th, 2009 05:41 am (UTC)
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Nice work so far. After reading this and personal experiences, I had a few thoughts I figured I'd throw out there.

I'm starting to get the impression drops are tiered off and mobs work similar to armory crates. When the mob dies, the system does a series of randoms for certain value ranges on items with caps on the number of rolls for each category and number of items that can drop from each category with a total cap of 10 items (as SE has claimed) before going to a final set for crystals.

From the looks of your research, I'm going to guess that Treasure Hunter adds to the possible number of rolls in each category by a % (+50% TH1, +100% TH2, then +20% for each TH+1 piece equipped). This could explain why more common drops are enhanced significantly, while people tend to not see as dramatic improvement on items with very low drop rates.

For example, let's make up a table for Tinnin and rolls needed.
Group 1 (100% Drop Rate Items, need to roll 0-999)
1 Roll Each - Max of 1 item drops
Tinnin Scale (TH4 makes it 2.4 -> 2 rolls, but it caps at 1 drop)

Group 2 (Hachiryu - Need to Roll 950-999 - 2 Rolls - Cap of 1)
TH4 = 4.8 -> 4 rolls. Stops after a successful roll

Group 3 (Weapons - 0-125 Shusui, 126-874 No Drop, 875-999 Alkalurops - 2 Rolls - Cap of 1?)
TH4 = 4 rolls

Groups 4 (Hats - 0-250 Oracles, 251-749 No Drop, 750-999 Enkidu, 4 rolls, cap of 2)
TH4 = 9.6 -> 9 Rolls, stops after 2 successful rolls

Group 5 (Enkidu's Harness - Need to roll 750-999 - 2 Rolls - Cap of 2)
TH4 = 4 rolls

Group 6 (Tinnin's Fan - Need to roll 850-999 - 2 Rolls - Cap of 1)
TH4 = 4 Rolls

Drop total counted. Crystal rolls occur to fill in the gaps where things didn't drop, and stops if the crystals earned puts the total drop count at 10.

That's my thoughts at least. It would explain why TH raises tendencies to drop but doesn't always seem to improve items that have a poor drop rate to begin with.

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